Insights

Every August, we “Chart the Course” with a series of charts that highlight key current and historical trends in the economy and markets. We hope you find them both insightful and useful. Our regular commentary will resume in September.

What's Inside: Travel Spending Surpasses Pre-Pandemic Levels; The Lock-in Effect Is Easing, But Oh So Slowly; Have You Set a Retirement Savings Goal?; Buying a Condo? Focus on the Financials; Family Fun for Less: Tips to Help Cut Costs on Your Next Vacation; Tips to Help Preserve Your Inheritance

The newly signed tax bill passed by Congress and the President the first week of July delivers front-loaded stimulus aimed at boosting near-term growth while cushioning tariff impacts. Despite longer-term deficit concerns, it’s a net positive for the economy in the short run.

What's Inside: State and Local Sales Tax Across the Map; Social Security Wage Base for 2025 Is Highest Yet; Will You Pay a Medicare Surcharge?; Peer-to-Peer Payments Are Popular, but Be Careful; Golf is Back, but Good Luck Getting a Tee Time; and Fine-Tuning with Sector Funds

Geopolitical tensions flared last week as Israel and Iran exchanged strikes, sparking a swift market response—stocks dipped and oil surged. While the headlines are serious, historical context and energy dynamics suggest a short-term shock, not a lasting shift.

The temporary U.S.–China tariff suspension is a clear step forward, lowering effective tariff rates to more manageable levels. But uncertainty remains, especially for small businesses and the direction of future negotiations. Sentiment-based “soft” data continues to fall sharply, while hard economic indicators remain resilient.

While we typically use April Musings to recap the first quarter, the events since March 31 have been too significant to ignore—most notably, the newly implemented tariffs and their potential ripple effects on the economy and markets.

Investors anticipated tax cuts and deregulation after the election but overlooked the full impact of tariffs, which are now unsettling business planning and sentiment. While uncertainty can slow economic growth, history shows that geopolitical events rarely cause recessions—thus the risk of a major bear market is low.