Insights

While we typically use April Musings to recap the first quarter, the events since March 31 have been too significant to ignore—most notably, the newly implemented tariffs and their potential ripple effects on the economy and markets.

Investors anticipated tax cuts and deregulation after the election but overlooked the full impact of tariffs, which are now unsettling business planning and sentiment. While uncertainty can slow economic growth, history shows that geopolitical events rarely cause recessions—thus the risk of a major bear market is low.

Trade tensions have escalated significantly with new US tariffs imposed on imports from Canada, China, and potentially, the EU. While the longer-term impact is uncertain, the administration’s goals appear to be increasing tariff revenue and reducing the trade deficit. Despite some concerns from companies, the broader economic effect will likely be limited if US economic growth remains strong.